Local elections and leadership troubles

It’s possibly unoriginal to use the old adage that a week is a long time in politics, but just a week ago at the time of writing the Labour leader was celebrating his local election successes. One week on and his future as leader hangs in the balance of a police investigation into an alleged lockdown rule break in April 2021.

Six months ago when I began investigating why Labour lost the Red Wall in 2019 and whether it could win it back, in the run up to last week’s local elections, the political context was very different. When I started the interviews which have made up this series, ‘partygate’ was just a word and the beginnings of the cost of living crisis were only on the horizon. But where are we now?

Last week’s local elections were largely successful for Labour, in the Red Wall winning the new Cumberland council where Workington had fallen to the Conservatives in 2019. They also held on to Sunderland where the Conservatives had campaigned heavily, including a visit from Chancellor Rishi Sunak.

I spoke to Sunderland City Council’s Labour Leader Graeme Miller following the elections to ask him about whether he felt voters sticking with his party meant the Red Wall was starting to be rebuilt. “People were much happier to be talking to us on the door compared to 2019”, he told me, “They were friendly and happy to chat. That’s down to the fact that locally we are delivering for them and nationally people have a clear choice between, in their words a ‘liar’ Prime Minister, and a Prime Minister in waiting with Keir Starmer.”

But he warned that Labour must not get ahead of themselves. “You cannot assume, though, it's going to go your way.”, Coun Miller says, “You have got to keep working on the premise that people are still unconvinced, there’s more that needs to be done and we must talk to [voters], listen to them and deliver what they’re asking for. When people stop voting for you you can’t just click your fingers and win them back, you have to earn their trust and get them to consider you again.”

Another Sunderland Labour activist told me that things appeared to be on the up for them as the main national issues on the doorstep were the cost of living crisis and partygate. While he has yet to get to grips with the cost of living crisis, Johnson’s leadership has been in question for months following revelations about parties in Downing Street during lockdown.

I first spoke to Irene, a 67 year-old grandmother from Cramlington, in November 2021 prior to the partygate revelations. When we spoke again in May 2022 she said she felt like we’d been taken for mugs by the government, “We were doing as we were told, behaving ourselves, and they blatantly disregarded the rules they had put in place, and to make matters worse it was denied”, Irene says.

According to YouGov polling, as of May 5, Johnson’s approval rating is at the second-lowest point since he took office with 68% believing he is doing badly.

Jamie Parker, author of Painting Britain Blue, told me that Tory MPs have been trying to work out whether Johnson is still the best man for the job since the partygate revelations emerged. “Conservative MPs picked him because they needed someone with the skills to deal with the issues they faced at the time, defeating Corbyn and delivering Brexit, and he did both of those in about six months”, Parker told me, adding: “The question I think Convservative MPs have been asking themselves for the last six months since partygate is ‘Is he the man for the job?’”.

Starmer returned to London after celebrating the local election results on May 6 after it was announced he would be investigated by police for an alleged lockdown rule break in April 2021. Credit: Alamy

Starmer announced he would resign if he is fined for breaking lockdown rules. Credit: Alamy

And now Keir Starmer’s leadership is also in question after Durham Police reopened an investigation into a potential lockdown breach in April 2021. Having called for the Prime Minister to resign, Starmer has now promised to resign if he is found to have broken the rules. When I asked Irene whether she cared about this as much as Johnson’s rule breaks she told me “no, because Boris Johnson was the person who put the rules in place and so he, of all people, should have stuck to them religiously”.

When I spoke to Rob Ford, Professor of Political Science at the University of Manchester, I asked him why Starmer would have put so much on the line by promising to resign if fined. He believed it could be a win-win policy for Labour. “From the perspective of the Labour party versus Boris Johnson, if Starmer doesn’t get fined they get an upside because their leader bravely promised to step down whereas Johnson keeps brazenly refusing to do so.” Ford told me. “If Starmer gets fined and resigns,” he continued, “then they could have a new leader more popular than Starmer and Johnson is in an even bigger hole because Starmer has done what he hasn’t.”

Looking ahead to 2024, all is to play for.

I started this series in Blyth Valley, investigating why it changed hands from Labour to the Conservatives in 2019 and wondered whether it could go back. “I think it could”, Rob Parsons, editor of the Northern Agenda told me, “That’s very much what the opinion polls seem to be saying.

“There’s still two years to go and if the government can get a grip on the cost of living crisis and show that levelling up isn’t just rhetoric but improving the lives of people on the ground, there’s a possibly they could still turn it around, but I think it’s going to be hard for them”

Labour are undoubtedly on the front foot. The latest national polling, as of May 11, puts Labour ahead on 39% (up from 32.2% in the 2019 General Election) and the Conservatives on 34%, down nearly 10% (from 43.6%) on 2019. If both parties continue as they are it isn’t impossible to see Labour winning back seats in the Red Wall but both parties will be fighting for these seats like never before.

The results of the next General Election will tell us whether the fallen Red Wall was completely demolished or simply knocked down to be rebuilt.